Ethiopia on the Brink: Fighting Erupts in Tigray, Amhara and Afar

A destroyed tank on the main street of Edaga Hamus, in the Tigray region in 2021 (Yan Boechat/VOA)

On September 23rd, 2026, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched an offensive against multiple targets under control of the Ethiopian government, while fighting broke out in the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar as well. Tigrayan officials label it as a defensive action, but there are fears that this could lead to a further escalation in a region that has already been the scene of conflicts and violence against civilians.

Tigray is a regional state in Ethiopia located in the northern part of the country, bordering Eritrea, Sudan, and two other regional states, Amhara and Afar. The region is notable for the role that the Tigrayan people have played in Ethiopian history and politics.

After playing a significant role during Italy's attempts to colonise Ethiopia, during which Tigrayan generals and soldiers stood out, the region found itself economically marginalised and discriminated against. This led to a series of uprisings. After the Ethiopian Revolution of 1974 brought the Derg military regime to power, the government fought various rebel groups, including the TPLF, and the civil war exacerbated the effects of a disastrous drought and famine on the population. In 1991, the victory of the rebel groups led to the formation of a succession of governments in which the TPLF wielded extensive power, even though Tigrayans represent only 6% of the Ethiopian population. Owing to this dominance, in 2018 the other regional movements broke away from the TPLF and backed another candidate for the elections, Abiy Ahmed. Tensions escalated and led to the Tigray War, in which the central government, Eritrea, and other regional militias fought a two-year war against the TPLF, resulting in the displacement of millions of people and deaths estimated at up to 800,000 and finally ending with the Pretoria Agreement of 2022.

Tensions, however, have never been resolved, and the TPLF has never been reintegrated into national politics, fueling discontent and recurrent skirmishes. Critics point to Abiy's authoritarian turn as prime minister and the loss of government support among various militia groups as fertile ground for the conflict to flare up again. Since 23 September, the TPLF and other allied militias have seized several towns and three airports in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Afar. According to Tigrayan officials, federal forces are withdrawing rapidly, whereas the Ethiopian army claims to have killed at least 272 TPLF fighters in a counter-offensive in Amhara. Faced with this offensive, the most significant since the Tigray War, analysts fear that involvement by Eritrea and other militias could trigger a regional escalation, raising concerns about human rights violations and abuses.

Whilst the international community is urging the parties to respect international humanitarian law and calling for a de-escalation of hostilities, the structural tensions between the parties risk triggering a large-scale conflict, which would be even more violent for a population whose wounds have not yet healed since the previous Tigray War.

Auteur.e : Edoardo Azzolin

Date de publication : 2 octobre 2026

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